Gene W. Craven serves as station manager for WUGA-FM 91.7/97.9, the University of Georgia's Public Radio International affliate. The station, which is a member of both National Public Radio and Peach State Public Radio, is operated by the Georgia Center.

I've Been Thinking...

... about the future of radio. As we approach the beginning of a new millennium, tremendous changes appear to be in store for radio broadcasting and other areas of electronic communication.

The recently passed "Telecommunications Act of 1996" is the most comprehensive renovation of telecommunications law in several decades. In its wake, the legal walls that have prevented the until-now separate and distinct communications industries from invading one another's territories have come tumbling down. With these sweeping reforms, our elected representatives have at last acknowledged the magnitude of the technological advancements that now shape our lives.

This climate of change is certain to affect radio. The rapid expansion of the World Wide Web, the Internet's most user-friendly, multi-media environment, is encouraging a new generation of entrepreneurs, eager to strike it rich through the development of innovative products and services for Web users. One such product that could affect radio is breakthrough software called "Real Audio," which provides for nearly simultaneous transmission of audio over the Internet. Several radio stations around the country are now simulcasting live on the Internet.

With the click of a mouse, one can "tune in" and listen to radio stations thousands of miles away. In another development, small satellite dishes now serve more than one million customers with 200 television channels and 30 channels of commercial-free music in formats ranging from rap to opera. Within a few years, satellite digital radio also will be available for auto as well as home receivers. The antenna will be about the size of a silver dollar and will be capable of receiving dozens of radio channels. How these new consumer opportunities will affect your favorite local radio station remains to be seen.

In light of these and other developments, radio--one of the oldest forms of electronic communication--might appear poorly positioned to compete in this new universe of communications possibilities. But in reality, the use of radio and its impact on the lives of people is increasing, not only in the United States, but around the world.

At times, radio's position at the low end of high tech works to its advantage. Take, for example, the story of British inventor Trevor Bayliss (from an editorial by Andrew Glass in The Atlanta Constitution, February 28, 1996, p. A-11). To help combat the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, Bayliss designed a windup radio for the millions of people who don't have electrical power or the means to buy batteries. These radios can tune in shortwave and AM and FM stations and can operate for about 40 minutes between windings. This clever device may bring the outside world, and the hope for a better life, to hundreds of millions of impoverished people.

Because of its pervasiveness and accessibility, radio can also lead the way in political and economic reform. With the break-up of the Soviet Union and its centrally controlled broadcast system, many new radio stations are being created in the Russian Federation and the Newly Independent States. Free of governmental control for the first time, these stations are leading an economic renaissance by introducing new products and services to their listeners through advertising. This new independence from state control is also fostering open political discourse not unlike that of U.S. talk radio.

And in the U.S., changes, not only in technology but in format as well, have increased radio's influence. Many political analysts credit conservative talk-radio shows with having a major influence on the 1994 elections and the Republican victories that year in Congress. Talk radio has become the modern equivalent of the town meeting where ideas of the common citizen, from all "sides" of an issue or topic, are presented and debated.

The radical changes that radio faces today in its technical environment do not present the medium with its first challenge. When television was invented, many predicted that radio would be extinct within a few years. But today, radio is not just surviving, it's thriving. There are now more than 12,000 radio stations in the U.S., compared to about 1,700 television stations (Broadcasting and Cable, March 4, 1996, p. 76).

Radio succeeds because it continues to provide services to consumers that are not duplicated by any other electronic medium. Radio is portable and can be used while performing such other tasks as driving, for instance. Radio can also adapt very quickly to changes in the marketplace and can focus precisely on market niches. There are now at least five distinct jazz-radio formats, each with its own audience and advertisers. And, not insignificantly, producing radio programming is very inexpensive when compared to television production.

I feel that new technologies are not a threat to radio, but, instead, promise new challenges for broadcasters and new opportunities for consumers. New electronic services will provide healthy competition for existing broadcasters. And this competition can only increase the range of choices for consumers desiring information or entertainment. Radio will continue to adapt to the ever-changing marketplace and will survive, in some form, well into the next century.

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